World Population Trends in Contrasting Parts of the World

What are population trends?

Population trends presents the latest statistics on population, births, deaths, marriages, divorce, abortion, migration and other topical issues that leads to growth or depletion in population.

The population trend of the past:
World annual population growth rates averaged less than 0.6% during the 18th and 19th centuries, passed the 1% rate around 1920, and peaked at 2.04% in the late 1960s (UN,1998). This peak coincided with growing international concern about population growth in general. World population reached 1 billion in 1804, 2 billion in 1927, 3 billion in 1960, 4 billion in 1974, 5 billion in 1987, and reached the 6 billion mark shortly before the millennium (UN,1998)

The current population trend:
The current rate of increase is very high, By the year 2000, there were 10 times as many people on Earth as there were 300 years ago. According to data from the CIA's 2005-2006 World Factbooks, the world human population increases by 203,800 every day.
Globally, the population growth rate has been steadily declining from its peak of 2.19% in 1963, but despite this fact, growth remains high in LEDCs or less developed regions like Latin America, the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa.

(This statement is reinforced by the graph on the right which clearly shows that LEDCs' population is increasing whilst MEDC's population remains consistent. However, as this graph is only an estimate at best, the actual population may be smaller than what the graph is projecting as evidenced below -- UN predicts that the peak population will be 9 billion on the year 2050 whereas on this graph, the population is more closer to 10-11 billion. Also UN predicts that the population will DROP after the year 2050 but it is evident on the graph that the population does not drop at all)

The statement above is also reinforced by the graph below which clearly shows that the growth rate has been declining since 1963 and will continue to do so as time passes on. (It is imperative to note that the graph only shows the world's population growth rates not the actual population of our world -- the actual population of our world is still increasing but on a slower scale since 1963!)
Graph showing World population growth rates (NOT the projected population in the future):


The population trend of the future:
The United Nations states that population growth is rapidly declining due to the demographic transition, which is again the (DTM) a model used to represent the process of explaining the transformation of countries from high birth rates and high death rates to low birth rates and low death rates as part of the economic development of a country from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economy. Still though, the populations total is expected to reach over 9 billion. The increase alone is close to the total world population in 1950.


Essentially all of the growth will take place in the less developed countries, and will be concentrated among the poorest populations in urban areas. By contranst, the overall population of the more developed countries is likely to show little change over the next 41 years, remaining at about 1.2 billion. The world population is expected to peak at 9.2 billion in 2050.
One of the main reasons for this reason: is that the birth rate is declining along with people classified as "baby boomers" will begin to die thus dropping the population numbers. Fertility in the less developed countries as a whole is projected to decline from 2.75 children per woman in 2005-2010 to 2.05 in 2045-2050. The decline in the group of the 50 least developed countries is expected to be even sharper: from 4.63 children to 2.50 children per woman.

Realisation of these projections is dependent on continued declines in fertility, even as funding for family planning has been declining. Clearly, most people want and are having smaller families than in the past. This trend has been greatly helped by the wider availability of high quality, safe and affordable family plannin services. Still, many people are having more children than they want to. Some 200 million women who would like to use contraceptives lack access to them.



The differences in population trend of MEDCs and LEDCS:

The demographic transition model is a good reference to the different population trends in MEDCs and LEDCs.



Through the demographic transition model, it can be seen that LEDCs are in the stage 1,2 and 3 and the MEDCs are in stage 4 and 5.

In LEDCs or less developed nations (like Gambia or Kenya), the population growth tends to rapidly increase due to the extremely high birth rate and high death rates. The population trend of LEDCs are strongly effected by the culture trends and religion. The child survival rates stay around 70-80%. In many LEDCs, as the number of children per women increases, the chances of child survival tends to decrease.
In MEDCs and many developed countries (like Singapore, Germany), child survival rates are near 100%. This is due to a number of factors, including a greater standard of health care and living.

Table showing differences between MEDCs and LEDCs which affect growth rates:

Factors that affect the population growth rate of MEDCs & LEDCs
MEDCs	LEDCs
High standard of living	Lower standards of living
Greater Healthcare	Moderate-Low Healthcare
Greater level of Education	Lower levels of Education
Women have opportunities to have a career	Women are traditionally caretaker of household
Generally smaller families due to urban styles of living and parents having a career	Generally larger families to help care for agricultural assets
Careers > Family (More self-centred people)	Family > Career (more family members equates to more income)
High prices and taxes	Low prices and taxes

Because of these differences, the population pyramid of LEDCs and MEDCs are very different.

The differences in population trends in MEDCs and LEDCs *continued*:



The picture above shows the population structure & trend of countries in certain stages of the population pyramid.
To recap, (as this graph is quite similar to the DTM)
LEDCs (which are characterised by high birth rates, and short life expectancies e.x. Bangaldesh) are generally situated in the 1st or 2nd stage of the population pyramids.
MEDCs on the other hand (which are characterised by low birth rates and longer life expectancies e.x. Canada) are generally situated on the 3rd or 4th stage of the population pyramids.


Conclusion:

To conclude, the earth cannot sustain the percentage increase (population growth) of 1.3 % per year (even if growth rates in our world have been drastically cut since the early 1960's). 9 billion is way too many people by 2050 because it is known that the population would double even faster than usual (in fewer amounts of years). Solutions to solving population include encouraging the use of family planning, giving proper education to citizens, utilisation of greener technology, (such as using electric cars, using wind turbines to collect wind energy and using solar power in order to improve state of our environment. Other things a government could do is devoting money to combating poverty. The points previously mentioned will ultimately support more people in our planet.

The video below is a powerpoint presentation on 'World population trends' designed to give you a recap on what readers have had just learnt on this topic:

Population:
n. The total number of inhabitants constituting a particular race, class, or group in a specified area.

MEDC's (More Economically Developed Country):
A country with high levels of economic development. Indicators of development include low birth, death, and infant mortality rates. Ex. USA, UK, Japan

LEDC's (Less Economically Developed Country):
A country with low levels of economic development. Indicators of lack of development include high birth, death, and infant mortality rates. Ex. Zimbabwe, Bangladesh, Ethiopia

Growth Rates:
The average exponential rate of growth of the population, over a given period expressed as a percentage.